What Can Super Bowl Ticket Prices Tell You About The Economy?

By Ryan Snefsky

The average price of a Superbowl ticket on the secondary market this year is currently $4,054. Last year, the average was $4,140. That's a decrease of roughly 2%. What can this information possibly tell us about the state of our economy?

We could certainly hypothesize that our economy is in a slightly worse place this year than last. But if we really want to have a better idea, we have to dive into the data even further.

There are certainly a variety of factors that could also be in play here. For example, different teams have fan bases of different sizes. Also, some might be more attracted to traveling to a city in the South during this time of year.

But even if we ballparked the impact of some of those factors, you can't help but notice that they can be countered by the supply side of supply and demand. The maximum capacity of the stadium in Dallas is 111,000, compared to 70,000 in Indianapolis. On a percentage basis, we're looking at a lot less availability, yet the average price is still 2% lower year over year?

While I can't be sure without access to much more data, I think we're seeing an overall decrease in confidence in consumer spending among those who can afford a $4,000+ ticket.

Is there any other data that could support this thesis? Yes. The Consumer Confidence Index was at 61.1 for the month of January, down from 64.8 in December, suggesting that consumer spending is on the decline. This index doesn't necessarily isolate the group of consumers that can afford a Superbowl ticket. But if consumers are feeling the pinch at this level, you can bet that consumer spending for average Americans is being hit even harder.

If consumers are still cutting spending, despite some of the recent positive jobs data that's been reported, there may still be some opportunities in stocks that give consumers an opportunity to "trade down."

Say a consumer usually shops for clothing at Macy's, and they start shopping at Kohl's or J.C. Penney instead. The consumer is said to be "trading down" to a replacement with a lower price point.

Based on this thesis, I plan to take a look at some trade down stocks for opportunities. Some of them have already experienced significant gains over the last couple years as a result of the challenging economy, so I'm a little skeptical of the valuations. But, if the trend is still that consumer spending is on the decline, there may be more room to the upside.

Examples of trade down stocks include companies like McDonalds (Symbol: MCD), Yum Brands (Symbol: YUM), Family Dollar Stores (Symbol: FDO), and Walmart (Symbol: WMT). There are many more examples out there, but I think you get the idea.

In the meantime, never forget that investment ideas can come from from anywhere, including the Superbowl. If you're looking to make uncommon profits from your investments, you need to have uncommon ways of thinking. When you hear of a popular topic of discussion in the media, always stop and ask yourself, "Is there anything here I can use for an investment angle?" Sometimes, the best investment opportunities are hiding in plain sight.